1. Latest Tungsten Price Trends
As of May 6, 2024, tungsten prices have remained strong. During the May Day holiday, the market maintained a stable wait-and-see situation, and merchants were relatively cautious in their enthusiasm for stocking up despite high costs. The price of tungsten concentrate with a 65% content has reached a high level of around 145000 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply of resources on site and a high quoted price. According to China Tungsten Online, in the first half of May 2024, Jiang Tungsten Group quoted 144000 yuan/ton of national standard first-class black tungsten concentrate, an increase of 9000 yuan/ton compared to the second half of April. The price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) is around 214000 yuan/ton, with the mining sector leading the upward trend. Smelters still face severe inversion pressure, and the market has received relatively few new orders. Xiamen Tungsten Industry's long-term purchase price of ammonium paratungstate in the first half of May 2024 increased by 16000 yuan/ton compared to the second half of April, to 208000 yuan/ton, demonstrating market recognition of the price increase of tungsten products. The price of tungsten powder is around 314000 yuan/ton, and the price of tungsten carbide powder is around 310000 yuan/ton. Onsite negotiations have continued to diverge, and the enterprise is facing limited operating load under pressure. Hard alloy enterprises have passively raised their product prices again, and the actual demand foundation is not stable. The price of 70% tungsten iron is around 205000 yuan/ton, and the cost of domestic tungsten raw materials resonates with international supply chain risks. The market is currently dominated by exploratory upward sentiment. The price of waste tungsten grinding material is around 2.65 yuan/degree, and the price of waste tungsten rod is around 220 yuan/kilogram.
2. Macroeconomic Impact Analysis
In 2024, China's CPI is expected to be 3%, and the central bank is committed to promoting a moderate rebound in prices and avoiding the risk of deflation. With the increase in prices of people's livelihoods and industrial products such as gas and high-speed rail fares, it is expected to drive up the overall price level. On the global economic stage, the tungsten product market is undergoing unprecedented changes. On the one hand, the marginal effects of the long-term interest rate hike policy in the United States are gradually becoming apparent, and the market's expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are heating up. This undoubtedly brings new opportunities and challenges to the commodity market, especially the tungsten product market. However, high inflation levels have also limited the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, bringing uncertainty to the prices of gold and bulk non-ferrous metals.
3.Price Outlook for Tungsten Products
The market logic for the price increase of tungsten products mainly stems from the positive feedback of consumer prices and quantities. Recently, tungsten product companies have raised their raw material prices one after another, with smelting companies raising their raw material prices by about 15%. In addition, with the tightening of raw material supply, the consumer side has begun to accept and disperse cost pressures, driving the entire industry chain to achieve a new balance in tungsten raw material prices. Looking ahead to the future, the improvement and release of new productive forces such as large aircraft, new energy, and automobiles in China will bring greater consumption growth to the tungsten product market. Although there may be a slight pullback in tungsten product prices in the short term, the overall upward trend remains unchanged. As predicted during the May Day holiday, tungsten product prices are on the rise, and the growth prospects of the tungsten product market, similar to the increase in high-speed rail ticket prices, are worth looking forward to.
